Despite soft rates and uneven demand in the first half of 2025, most U.S. carriers and brokers expect volumes, revenues, and margins to hold steady, or improve, through year-end. New surveys from Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence suggest that while cost pressures and tariff uncertainty persist, sentiment remains surprisingly strong.
Carriers Balance Caution on Rates With Confidence in Volumes
The data shows a split outlook: only 16% of carriers reported year-over-year revenue growth in the first half, yet 85% still expect load volumes to stay flat or rise over the next six months. More than half (56%) said volumes in Q2 were up or unchanged from last year, while 42% anticipate rate gains in Q3. Nearly half remain unsure when rates will bottom out, a sign of ongoing pricing volatility.
Investment appetite has cooled, just 21% plan to buy new equipment this year, down from 38% in Q1, yet 79% expect revenues to remain stable or grow in the months ahead. Job satisfaction dipped to 54% from 65% in Q1, but only 10% are considering leaving the industry, indicating that operational challenges haven’t translated into widespread attrition.
Broker Margins Hold, Even as Hiring Plans Ease
Brokers are seeing steadier financial footing, with 72% reporting flat or higher revenues in H1 compared to last year. Margins remain healthy, most operate at 15%, and 69% say this is higher than in late 2024. Spot and contract rate expectations are also firm, with more than 80% forecasting stability or improvement in both categories through the second half of 2025.
Hiring plans have softened, with 40% of firms expecting to add brokers this year versus 52% in December. Job satisfaction has edged down to 78% from 83%, but only 6% of brokers report being dissatisfied. Volume trends are slightly more positive than among carriers—37% saw higher load volumes year over year, and demand expectations are robust, with 83% predicting volumes will remain flat or increase.
The Real Test Will Be Resilience, Not Recovery Timing
Recent freight cycles show that carriers and brokers who adapt cost structures, diversify customer bases, and strengthen contractual relationships often maintain profitability even in flat-demand environments. As macroeconomic signals remain mixed, the second half of 2025 could be less about waiting for the upturn, and more about proving that operational resilience is now the industry’s primary competitive edge.