A last-minute agreement between Washington and Mexico City has delayed the imposition of 30% tariffs on Mexican imports, offering both sides a narrow window to strike a long-term accord. But other trading partners weren’t so fortunate as the U.S. accelerates its country-by-country tariff reset.
Extension Buys Time, But Not Certainty
The United States will delay new tariffs on Mexican imports for 90 days, temporarily sidestepping a potential escalation in trade tensions. The pause follows a call Thursday between U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, resulting in a short-term extension of tariff exemptions for goods covered under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Without the agreement, a 30% tariff on USMCA-compliant Mexican goods would have taken effect Friday, part of a broader return to country-specific trade measures under the Trump administration. While the pause provides immediate relief to cross-border manufacturers and U.S. importers, especially in automotive, electronics, and food sectors, several key categories remain exposed. Steel, aluminum, copper, and automotive imports from Mexico will continue to face existing sector-specific tariffs.
Goods that fall outside the scope of the USMCA remain subject to a 25% duty, as they have been since the original tariff freeze earlier this year. In a statement, Sheinbaum said the agreement preserves space for dialogue. “We avoided the increase in tariffs announced for tomorrow and attained 90 days to build a long-term agreement,” she posted in Spanish on X.
Selective Tariff Pressure Continues Elsewhere
The reprieve for Mexico contrasts sharply with the administration’s hardline approach toward other trading partners. Beginning Friday, India will face a 25% tariff on a broad range of exports to the U.S., a move foreshadowed by Trump in earlier statements but now formalized. Brazil will also be hit with a 40% tariff starting August 6, underscoring the administration’s willingness to act unilaterally where no deal is in place.
The White House has concurrently struck tailored agreements with the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, all of which negotiated reduced or framework-aligned tariff schedules in recent months. According to trade reports, these tiered deals reflect a recalibrated U.S. trade strategy that prioritizes bilateral leverage while creating room for country-specific outcomes.
For Mexico, which sends nearly 80% of its exports to the U.S., the temporary pause staves off immediate disruption. But experts caution that the three-month window is narrow, and that the cost of failure could be significant. If no agreement is reached by the end of the 90-day period, the previously planned 30% tariff could snap into place without additional notice.
Why This Temporary Pause May Be Misleading
While the extension avoids short-term shock, it also signals a broader structural shift in U.S. trade policy, one that favors transactional, country-specific outcomes over multilateral stability. For supply chains heavily invested in Mexico as a nearshoring hub, the risk calculus has changed. Even with USMCA compliance, tariff relief may now depend as much on political negotiation as on legal frameworks. The next three months could set a precedent: not just for Mexico, but for how future trade risks are priced across all so-called “friendly” sourcing markets.