Corporate purchasing patterns are sending mixed economic signals. While spending on enterprise technology continues to accelerate, procurement activity across most sectors is weakening. New data from Coupa and MIT suggests that actual purchasing behavior may be revealing shifts in business confidence well before traditional economic indicators catch up.
Procurement Data Points to a Softer Spending Environment
A new report from Coupa and the MIT Data Science Lab suggests that business spending is entering a more selective phase, with organizations continuing to fund strategic technology investments while pulling back in several other sectors.
The 2026 edition of the Coupa + MIT Data Science Lab Business Spend Index (BSI) draws on more than $10 trillion in transaction data generated across Coupa’s global network of over 10 million buyers and suppliers. The index combines actual procurement transactions with AI-driven analysis and macroeconomic modeling to forecast spending trends.
According to Coupa Chief Marketing Officer Kevin Iaquinto, the value of the index lies in its ability to observe economic activity through real purchasing decisions rather than expectations or sentiment. The report was developed in collaboration with the MIT Data Science Lab, which found that procurement transaction data often provides an early signal of broader economic shifts.
MIT Data Science Lab head David Simchi-Levi said the underlying dataset demonstrated strong predictive relationships with established measures such as GDP, ISM PMI data, and Federal Reserve economic indicators. The research team found that the index detected a significant manufacturing turning point roughly three months before it appeared in traditional manufacturing surveys.
That divergence became particularly visible in April. All five sectors tracked by the index recorded month-over-month spending declines, ranging from a 0.8% reduction in manufacturing spending to a 3.3% drop in business services. During the same period, ISM survey data suggested expansionary conditions across both manufacturing and services.
The contrast highlights a growing debate around economic measurement. Survey-based indicators capture executive sentiment and expectations, while transaction-based indicators reflect actual commitments of capital and purchasing activity. The BSI is built on the premise that spending decisions often change before business sentiment does.
Technology Investment Remains a Standout
While overall spending softened, technology procurement continued to move in the opposite direction. The index found that high-technology procurement spending has increased by more than 40% since mid-2024, reaching its highest level in four years. The category tracks enterprise software and services spending and suggests that corporate investment is increasingly following the massive wave of AI infrastructure spending seen across the technology sector over the past two years.
Recent announcements from major cloud providers, semiconductor manufacturers, and enterprise software companies have reinforced this trend, as organizations continue investing in AI capabilities despite broader economic uncertainty. The report forecasts that procurement spending will contract over the summer across high technology, financial services, and healthcare and life sciences, with financial services expected to experience the sharpest decline. Even so, technology spending remains significantly above historical levels.
The data also revealed a widening gap between large and small manufacturers during the tariff volatility of 2025. Smaller U.S. manufacturers reduced spending by 17.5%, compared with 14.6% among larger firms, underscoring how policy uncertainty disproportionately affected businesses with fewer financial resources and less supply chain flexibility.
The report argues that the February 2025 Supreme Court tariff ruling helped stabilize planning conditions by reducing uncertainty and allowing companies to redirect attention toward longer-term investments. One of the more notable findings involved manufacturing spending patterns late last year. Traditionally, manufacturers increase spending in response to rising customer demand. However, the index showed procurement activity rising despite relatively soft order growth. According to the report, much of that spending was tied to internal capability building rather than immediate production requirements.
Manufacturers were encouraged by the full-expensing provisions included in the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, using tax incentives to accelerate investments in automation, operational capabilities, and supply chain resilience initiatives.
A Different Kind of Manufacturing Cycle
Manufacturing spending has historically tracked customer orders closely. The BSI data points to a different pattern in late 2025, with procurement activity increasing even as demand indicators remained subdued. Much of that spending was directed toward automation, software, and operational upgrades rather than production expansion. Combined with the full-expensing provisions introduced in 2025, the data suggests that a meaningful share of manufacturing investment is currently being driven by internal modernization programs instead of immediate demand growth.