The U.S. truckload market has stayed calm despite seasonal pressures, with spot and contract rates inching higher as carrier capacity quietly exits. Tariffs and trade policy remain the swing factor, threatening to upend a fragile equilibrium heading into peak season.
Spot Rates Outpace Contract Growth
Data from RXO shows second-quarter truckload spot rates rose 6.5% year-over-year, a slowdown from 9.1% growth in Q1 and 11.6% in late 2024. Contract rates also edged higher, up 1.1% in Q2 compared with 1.4% in Q1. Seasonal events such as Memorial Day, DOT week, and produce season caused only short-lived bumps, underscoring the persistence of a muted demand environment that has been in place since 2023.
At the same time, cost pressure on carriers has not eased. Diesel, labor, and insurance remain elevated, and many operators continue to run at unsustainable margins. With large private fleets pulling back on equipment orders, Class 8 tractor purchases fell more than 40% in Q2, smaller carriers face rising exposure to spot freight. RXO expects that trend to push more operators out of the market, eventually allowing spot rates to overtake contract levels.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Clouds the Outlook
Truckload conditions remain closely tied to a volatile macro backdrop. U.S. GDP rebounded to a 3% annualized rate in Q2 after contracting earlier in the year, supported by consumer spending that grew 1.4%. Yet the rebound is tempered by weak industrial production, which slipped back into contraction, and imports that slowed sharply after tariff-driven inventory stockpiling in Q1.
Inflation also remains sticky. After bottoming at 2.3% in April, CPI accelerated to 2.7% by June, raising questions about future rate cuts. The Federal Reserve has signaled caution, with dissent emerging at its July meeting for the first time in decades. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment remains fragile despite a modest recovery in June, highlighting the potential for demand shocks as trade and tariff policies evolve.
Why Capacity, Not Demand, May Drive the Next Shift
The steadiness of the past two years has made it tempting to assume the truckload market is locked in place. But capacity attrition, not demand, could be the trigger for volatility. With driver employment falling for 24 straight months and FMCSA data showing more than 33,000 operating authorities lost since 2023, the market’s resilience is increasingly fragile. Should peak season volumes rise more than expected, or tariffs spur a sudden rush to restock, spot rates could turn sharply upward, leaving shippers exposed after years of easy tender acceptance.