A.P. Moller–Maersk has raised its full-year earnings forecast after global shipping demand, driven largely by Asia and emerging markets, continued to outperform expectations. The Danish carrier’s revised guidance comes despite a volatile trade environment shaped by shifting tariffs, reconfigured supply chains, and continued disruptions in key shipping lanes.
Asian Manufacturing Surge Offsets North American Weakness
Maersk now expects 2025 global container demand to grow between 2% and 4%, up from its earlier projection that ranged from a 1% decline to 4% growth. CEO Vincent Clerc told CNBC the uptick is powered by a “manufacturing boom in China” and broad-based export strength outside the U.S., even as April’s steep U.S.–China tariff escalation temporarily dampened trans-Pacific volumes.
Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, peaking at 145% on Chinese imports, sent U.S.-bound trade from China plunging up to 40% in April. A May truce eased tensions, lowering the U.S. base tariff on most Chinese goods to 30% and prompting China to cut duties on U.S. goods to 10%. Meanwhile, Washington struck new trade agreements with Japan and the EU, setting a 15% baseline tariff for both.
The shift in trade flows has helped lift Maersk’s core shipping volumes 4.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, with strong growth into Europe, Latin America, West-Central Asia, and Africa more than offsetting the contraction in North American imports. However, the carrier reported a 9.6% drop in average freight rates, while higher handling and re-routing costs, due in part to ongoing Red Sea disruptions, were only partly mitigated by lower fuel prices.
Earnings and Outlook Beat Analyst Expectations
Maersk now forecasts underlying EBITDA of $8 billion to $9.5 billion this year, up from $6 billion to $9 billion. Second-quarter revenue rose to $13.13 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $12.57 billion, while underlying EBITDA climbed 7.2% to $2.3 billion, also beating expectations. Underlying EBIT increased 8.2% to $818 million, well ahead of consensus forecasts.
The company cautioned that geopolitical risks, including Red Sea instability and tariff uncertainty, could still pressure volumes and rates. It continues to assume that rerouting away from the Red Sea will remain necessary for the rest of the year.
The Next Test: Pricing Power in a Fragmented Market
Even if cargo volumes remain resilient, the harder challenge for carriers like Maersk will be maintaining yield in a trade landscape that is increasingly splintered by tariffs, rerouting, and competitive capacity shifts. Recent industry data shows that overcapacity in certain Asia–Europe lanes is already exerting downward pressure on spot rates despite healthy demand. In the quarters ahead, pricing discipline, and the ability to flex network assets toward the most profitable corridors, may prove more decisive to earnings than volume growth alone.